Inaugural quarterly US Ad Market Outlook Report from Advertiser Perceptions provides US ad spending forecasts across advertising channels such as, connected TV (CTV), linear TV, retail media, social media and more

New York, NY (March 20, 2024) – US retail media spending will grow 30% in 2024, largely driven by offsite programmatic retail media platforms, according to an inaugural US ad spend forecast issued today by Advertiser Perceptions, the leading provider of research-based strategic market intelligence and analysis to the media, advertising and ad tech industry.

Specifically, Advertiser Perceptions forecasts over $20 billion in spending in offsite programmatic retail media advertising next year, up $7.5 billion in 2023, representing a new, fast growing pool of demand for streaming services and publishers who sell programmatic advertising. Looking forward, retail media ad spending will pass $81.6 billion in 2025, representing 23.5% of all digital advertising in the US.

“Brands have been pouring money into retail media over the past few years,” said Eric Haggstrom, director of business intelligence and head of forecasting for Advertiser Perceptions. “While we expect this trend to continue, retail media will evolve significantly in the coming years. As ad auctions on retailers’ own properties become saturated, brands will look to utilize retailers’ data to power their buys outside of retailers’ digital walls. Media and ad tech companies need to form relationships with retail media platforms or risk missing out on one of the few large and quickly growing segments of the digital advertising market.”

This report and Advertiser Perception’s broad suite of US ad spending forecasts will be updated on a quarterly basis moving forward. The ad spending forecast is based on analysis of financial reports from more than 100 publicly-traded companies involved in ad sales, the largest ad buyers in the world, research from government statistical organizations, and years of Advertiser Perceptions syndicated research. This release marks the first wide launch of the company’s syndicated advertising spending market research, which provides granular estimates of channels including connected TV (CTV), linear TV, retail media and social media.

Additional findings from this research include:

  • Digital Ad Spend Reaches Record Levels: Digital ad spend grew 11.7% in 2023, reaching a record $283 billion in the U.S. Moving forward, digital ad spend will grow about 10% in both 2024 and 2025, an incremental $30 billion or more each year.
  • Short-Form Video Drives Social Media Spend: Spending on social media will grow by an expected 14% in 2024 and 11.8% in 2025, with most growth coming from spending on short videos such as those featured on TikTok, Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts. In-stream video social media and user-generated content video will see the next highest level of spending in 2025.
  • Election and Olympics Accelerate CTV Growth: Spending on CTV will see a boost in 2024, thanks to the national election and the Olympics, growing 16.2%. This is a conservative estimate, however, as spending could be driven higher by the election and more success by Amazon Prime Video’s ad tier.
  • Programmatic Grows More Moderately: Programmatic ad spending on mobile and desktop will grow in the single-digits or be flat. Publishers, both major and long-tail, who depend on revenues from programmatic advertising, will face a tougher time as growth in programmatic spending grows at a moderate pace.

“The advertising market will be strong in 2024, buoyed in large part by the presidential election and the upcoming Olympics,” continued Haggstrom. “Retail media, social media and CTV will be the biggest drivers of growth over the next two years, as advertisers not only prefer both the targeting and creative opportunities available through these digital channels but also can prove the ROI.”

The complete US advertising spend forecast is also available through the company’s new subscription offering, the AP Ad Insights Hub, which launched earlier this month.

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About Advertiser Perceptions
Advertiser Perceptions is the leader in providing research-based strategic market intelligence to the complex and dynamic media, advertising, and ad tech industries. Our curated, proprietary Ad PROS™ Network and deep relationships with the largest advertisers provide clients with an unbiased view of the market, their brand, and the competition. Our experts provide timely and actionable guidance enabling clients to improve their products and services, strengthen their brands, and drive more revenue.